If you want to understand where Lakewood Ranch home prices stand today, it helps to go back to the day COVID really took hold. I can remember it vividly — my phone stopped ringing, and that was the beginning of 2020. Nobody knew what was about to happen to real estate — or anything else for that matter. For the first couple of months, everything went flat. No calls, no showings, nothing.
And then about two months in, everything flipped. Buyers were active like I had never seen before. Home prices took off like a rocket. And while you might think I loved that frenzy, I did not. I was writing 10 to 15 offers per buyer just to get one contract. It was brutal for buyers and their agents alike.
What Actually Happened to Lakewood Ranch Home Prices
I think of what happened to Lakewood Ranch home prices during that period the way Nassim Nicholas Taleb describes a black swan event — highly unexpected beforehand, with major consequences, and then explained away afterward as though it should have been predictable all along.
Fast forward four or five years: prices have come back down off that peak, but they have not crashed. They have settled into a more normal market. And if you bought your home here in Lakewood Ranch in 2022 or 2023, right at the top, there is something your market updates probably have not spelled out clearly for you.
What the Numbers Actually Show for 2022 and 2023 Buyers
In the flat COVID quarter of 2020, the average sale price per square foot in this area was around $250. Prices did not stop climbing after 2022 — they kept rising into late 2024, when price per square foot topped around $350. That is a 55 percent increase from where things started in 2020.
Since that peak in 2024, Lakewood Ranch home prices have eased back down to about $318 to $325 per square foot — roughly 7 to 9 percent off the top of the market. So if you bought in 2022 at a price closer to $337 per square foot, today’s market has settled in just below what you paid.
This is not just a Lakewood Ranch story. It is happening across the fastest-growing parts of Florida and Texas for the same reasons — and it explains a lot of the calls I have been getting.
Not Everyone from That Window Is in the Same Position
Before I go further, I want to be fair. Not everyone who bought during that period is in the same spot.
If you signed a new construction contract in 2021 or early 2022 but closed a year later, you likely locked in a price before the runup — and you have probably seen a real increase in value. The same is true for owners who have held their homes since pre-pandemic times. This is not about you.
This is specifically about buyers who purchased at or near the top of the 2022 and 2023 market — and who are now wondering exactly where they stand.
When 2022-2023 Buyers Call Me About Selling
When a client calls me wanting to sell a home they bought in that window, the first question I ask is never the price. It is what is actually driving the move.
Almost every time, it is something real. Moving closer to grandchildren. A death in the family. Divorce. Moving closer to family for care in their later years. It is never that they suddenly stopped liking the house.
Once I understand the situation, I pull the real comparables for their neighborhood and show them exactly what homes are selling for right now — not what the market felt like when they bought. Then we look at the full picture: after commissions, doc stamps on the deed, HOA estoppel fees, and prorated costs. A lot of these sellers realize they are not walking away with a profit. Some are bringing money to the table just to close.
I have had two clients under contract recently selling for less than what they paid in 2022 or 2023. That is the reality for a meaningful chunk of buyers from that window.
Why Waiting and Listing High Both Fail
Here is where I go against the standard advice. Most people will tell you to wait it out until the price comes back, or to list high and negotiate down. Neither one of those strategies works here.
An overpriced home does not get showings. It does not get offers. It just sits — and every week it sits, it loses more ground. And waiting does not work either, for a reason most sellers do not think about.
Lakewood Ranch still has a massive amount of new construction being built right now. Builders are offering incentives, rate buydowns, and brand-new features that your resale home cannot match. Every year you wait for your price to come back, you are not just waiting on the market — you are falling further behind a growing wave of new homes with better financing options than you or your buyer can offer. For more on how new construction is affecting resale, see my earlier post on buying new construction in Lakewood Ranch.
My advice runs the opposite direction of what most people expect: price it competitively and sell now instead of holding out for your 2022 number.
What Buyers Get Wrong About Lakewood Ranch Home Prices Too
Sellers are not the only ones who misunderstand this market. Buyers do too.
I had a call recently from a buyer who saw what a seller had originally paid for their home and wanted to make a lowball offer because he figured the seller’s profit margin left room to negotiate the price way down. But here is what that buyer was missing: a home is only worth what it is worth in today’s market. What the seller paid has nothing to do with that.
Think about it this way — what if the seller had inherited the home and had nothing invested in it at all? Would the buyer feel justified in offering even less? Or what if the seller had paid $400,000 more than the home is worth today? Would the buyer feel comfortable paying full market value just because the seller was losing money instead of gaining it?
The seller’s profit or loss is not the business of the buyer. The only number that means anything is what the home is actually worth right now — based on real comparable sales, not on what someone paid for it.
So Where Do 2022-2023 Buyers in Lakewood Ranch Actually Stand?
If you bought in Lakewood Ranch in 2022 or 2023 and you are wondering whether to sell, here is my honest advice: know your real number and price to today’s market.
If you truly do not need to sell, renting the property may be worth considering while you wait for values to recover — and that could be a real option. But it only works if you do not need the equity today.
For most people calling me with real reasons to move, that is not where they are. And if you are in that position — if life has changed and you need to move regardless of what the market does — the best thing you can do is get clear on your real number and make a smart decision from there.
If you bought in Lakewood Ranch between 2022 and 2024 and want to know exactly where you stand, I will pull your real comparables and tell you the truth — not what you want to hear.
I am Mark Boehmig with Michael Saunders & Company. Call or text me at 941-807-6936, email me at MarkBoehmig@MichaelSaunders.com, or visit MarkitSoldFl.com to get started.
